How will Trump respond to major crises in Ukraine, Gaza, Lebanon, Iran?

 

How will Trump respond to major crises in Ukraine, Gaza, Lebanon, Iran?

When Donald Trump is inaugurated January 20, he'll inherit 2 bloody, intractable foreign crises. The US proxy war in Ukraine will be approaching its third year with no peaceful settlement in sight.

The genocide in Gaza, the worst in this century, will be in its 16th month. That genocide has drawn in Palestinian support from Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and their chief backer Iran. This makes a major regional war involving other Middle East countries as well as the US and Russia a real possibility.

Unlike Joe Biden, who always promotes belligerent US foreign policy in every conflict, Donald Trump is a mixed bag when it comes to US adventurism abroad. He’s never been in sync with the US national security establishment when it comes to expanding NATO and prosecuting Biden’s proxy war against Russia currently destroying Ukraine.

Indeed, he’s signaled he’ll push to end it without committing to prevent Russian acquisition of Donbas, adjacent oblasts and Crimea. It would be politically difficult for Trump to reverse course and continue Biden’s delusional squandering endless billions in weapons for a lost cause. Of course nothing is certain due to his mercurial policy style and temperament. But at least Trump offers a glimmer of hope that the US will force a settlement ending the greatest threat to nuclear war since the Cuban Missile Crisis 62 years ago.

Trump’s slant on the Middle East is another matter entirely. He’s been more outspoken than Biden on supporting Israeli genocide in Gaza, demanding that Israel “finish the job.” He nearly blundered into war with Iran during his presidency and shows no sign of pivoting from aggressive confrontation with Iran in his second turn at Commander in Chief.

His first foreign policy pick reinforces that concern. He’s tabbed fervent Iran hawk Brian Hook to begin staffing the Trump State Department. Hook served as U.S. Special Representative for Iran and advisor to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during the last two years of Trump’s presidency. This saw the US assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani and expansion of crushing sanctions intended to spur regime change in Iran. That led to fear of a US provoked war with Iran, but did nothing to change out the Iranian regime.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump “plans to drastically increase sanctions on Iran and throttle its oil sales as part of an aggressive strategy” in his second term.

Trump’s 2018 withdrawal of the US from Obama’s 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement, backfired spectacularly, spurring Iran to greater nuclear enrichment in case they decide to become a nuclear power to counter US and Israeli aggression. As president Trump repeatedly proved himself incompetent when confronting imaginary enemies. He’s apparently learned nothing about diplomacy and conflict resolution during his 4 year banishment from power.

We barely avoided war with Iran during Trump’s administration. His Iran policy 2.0 will almost certainly bring more conflict with a power that is no pushover if a US Iran war breaks out. It’s even possible Trump’s plan to quickly withdraw from the Ukraine war is designed to keep US military resources available and focused on his primary bête noir Iran.

2025, like 2024, is not shaping up to be a peaceful year based on early Trump presidential transition signals.

Hold on folks. Once again it’s going to be a bumpy foreign policy ride in 2025.