Sunday, November 25, 2012

Question for GOP: Does 70% float your boat?

Folks who analyze population and voting trends have determined that a 64 year trend of declining white vote as a percentage of all presidential voters will continue into the future. From 91% in 1948, the white vote has declined in every presidential election since, sinking to 72% this year. That trend helped President Obama take two southern states, come close in North Carolina, and make respectable showing in Georgia, Mississippi and South Carolina in spite of doing virtually no campaigning there. The non-white vote is increasing faster that the white vote in every southern state except Louisiana. Georgia, in particular, could well be within Democratic reach in 2016. Richard Nixon's "Southern Strategy", whereby most southern whites, along with their white sympathizers outside the south, were herded into the GOP with a subtle appeal to racial favoritism, is going "poof".  

The current trend shows the white vote declining two percent each election. That reduces the GOP core voting block to 70% for the next election. However, within that demographic, the GOP has alienated many of the young, the gay, the educated, women and those in need of a strong governmental safety net. Even if the GOP can hold onto their current 60% standing of the white vote, that gives them just 42% of the total electorate before the non-white vote is tabulated.

GOP agonists are publically stating their party must reach out to this vast "other" America they have written off for so long. What they don't state is the obvious: a helping hand does nothing if its empty.

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