Doomsday Clock setting feels more like 8 or 9 seconds to midnight than 89 seconds

Lived all but 4 months of my 80 years under the threat of nuclear annihilation. So every January, I take seriously the annual Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Doomsday Clock announcement of our countdown to global catastrophe.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, founded in 1945 by Albert Einstein, J. Robert Oppenheimer, and University of Chicago A Bomb scientists, created the Doomsday Clock in 1947 to dramatize peoplekind’s threats to existence. Originally focused on nuclear annihilation, the Clock’s setting now includes climate crisis, biological threats, and disruptive technologies like AI.

Tuesday’s announcement was disturbing. The Bulletin set the Clock to 89 seconds to midnight, the closest it’s been in its 78 year countdown. Tho just one second further than its previous worst of 90 seconds two years ago, the Bulletin sees nary of sign of progress in either halting the proliferation of nuclear weapons or the hostel military entanglements that could trigger nuclear war, most precariously the war in Ukraine.

The return of President Trump offers little hope for reducing nuclear tensions. In his first term he exited both the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) and the Open Skies Treaty with Russia. He also failed to renew the New Start Treaty which thankfully was quickly extended for 5 years by successor Biden. Set to expire in a year and 2 days, Trump’s antipathy to remaining in any nuclear agreements casts gloom over the effort to prevent escalating nuclear tensions.  

One ray of hope has been the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. This was proposed in 2017 by the International Campaign for the Abolition of Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), composed of hundreds of organizations and many of the 186 non-nuclear nations. ICAN organized a UN conference to address the abolition of nuclear weapons. The US and its 8 nuclear club comrades all boycotted the UN special conference which passed the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) 122-1. Upon ratification by 50 countries TPNW went into effect January 22, 2021. TPNW prohibits he use, threatened use, development, manufacture, acquisition, possession, stockpiling, stationing, and installation of nuclear weapons. No wiggle room for cheating in TPNW.

 However, without participation from the 9 nuclear powers, TPNW remains largely a moral symbol casting shame on the nuclear powers all bent on increasing their nuclear arsenals instead of abolishing them. At least the 94 countries that signed it agree to never seek nuclear weapons.

The furthest from midnight the Doomsday Clock ticked was 17 minutes (1,020 seconds) in 1991 when the US and Soviet Union signed the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START). Followed by the demise of the Soviet Union, further progress on nuclear disarmament should have a snap. Instead, the US foreign policy elite itself snapped, ramping up a new Cold War against a now powerless Russia. This culminated in the 2022 US proxy war on Russia destroying Ukraine, putting us at risk of nuclear confrontation with Russia every day it continues.

No wonder the current 89 seconds, for those of us seeking an end to the specter of nuclear annihilation, feels more like 8 or 9 seconds.

Walt Zlotow, West Suburban Peace Coalition, Glen Ellyn IL